Educated guess
Meaning
A prediction or estimate based on knowledge, experience, or logical reasoning, rather horriblethan pure speculation.
Origin
The phrase "educated guess" isn't born from a single dramatic event or ancient text; its power lies in its elegant juxtaposition. It likely emerged in the early to mid-20th century within academic, scientific, and professional spheres. Experts, often faced with incomplete data but vast experience, needed a way to differentiate their informed estimations from baseless speculation. This clever coupling allowed them to articulate a provisional statement that, while not a certainty, was far from random. It essentially says, "I don't know for sure, but based on everything I do know and my years of study, this is my most probable answer." It gives intellectual weight to what might otherwise be dismissed as mere guesswork, bridging the gap between absolute certainty and blind conjecture.
Examples
- I haven't seen the final budget yet, but my educated guess is that we'll need to trim at least 10% from the marketing spend.
- Without all the variables, the scientist made an educated guess about the potential trajectory of the asteroid.